HYPE price · live
$96.00
model anchor $96.00
A short, unusually direct chain drives the token: trading volume × take rate × protocol take × value-accrual. Unlike most tokens, the cash-flow claim is near-complete and automatic — 97% of protocol fees route to open-market buybacks and burns, plus the AQAv2 USDC-reserve yield. The model says the current quote already embeds the bull case.
Every headline number below is an output of explicit assumptions — a TAM, a share, a take rate, a discount rate — not a forecast. Change the assumption and every downstream number moves.
Per market, per year: TAM × Hyperliquid share → notional volume → blended take rate → gross fees → protocol take after the HIP-3 builder pass-through → HYPE economic cash flow → tokens bought → removed from float → fair price. The last step feeds back into the number of tokens bought.
Because the token is priced on its circulating float, unlocks dilute the price and buybacks support it — exactly the tension the framework models.
Anchors as of 2026-09-23. Anything not directly observed — TAMs, future shares, fee compression, discount rates, unlock sell-through — lives inside the scenario assumptions.
Blended output — DCF 50% / 20× revenue 30% / network 20% — computed every year for every scenario. Toggle lines to compare paths.
The DCF is the most conservative lens; the network multiple the most reflexive. No single multiple is applied across comparables.
Each scenario scales every segment's TAM CAGR by a growth factor and its 2030 share by a share factor, then changes the discount rate, terminal multiple and value-accrual share.
Every row is capturable on-chain annual notional volume — not asset AUM. The 2026 Hyperliquid-volume anchors are calibrated to observed data; TAM sizes, future shares, fee rates and protocol takes are assumptions.
$238.5T total capturable market
$2.45T today → $11.88T base case → $41.86T extreme
~778M HYPE are locked or unreleased against a 222M float. Annual dilution peaks in 2027 as the contributor cliff and emissions coincide, then falls toward zero as buybacks bite.
Monthly, Oct 2026 → Dec 2030
Only a fraction of releases become sales (40% base, 60% bear). The supply wave is why fair value can fall in 2027 even as revenue grows — the single most under-appreciated mechanic in the model.
Instead of forecasting a price, invert the model: pick a HYPE price and a market-cap / revenue multiple, and see the protocol revenue, gross fees, volume and TAM share needed on the modelled 2030 float of 556M.
At the $96 quote and 222.45M float, the market is paying 31.3× current protocol revenue of $681.8M.
2030 base-case fair price (USD) across the inputs that matter. The base cell — 77.0 — is highlighted in each grid.
Ranked by impact: 1) TAM × share — the 2030 base spans $25–$178. 2) Revenue growth × terminal multiple — spans $41–$239. 3) Value-accrual % — $66→$79 for 50%→97% at base growth. 4) Discount rate — 30%→15% lifts the blended 2030 value ~8–15%. 5) Unlock distribution / sell-through — changes float and therefore price materially over time.
This catalyst was not in the original model and is now a segment. Effect on base 2030 fair value: $66 → $77 (+17%). Bull $194 → $229. Extreme $473 → $567.
The model keeps conflicts parameterised rather than silently resolved. output/HYPE_sources.csv flags each external input as observed or estimate with date, source and URL.
Why the prediction segment was cut ~20×.
Observed: the first HIP-4 BTC outcome market did >$6M notional, ~0.7% of prediction-market daily volume. HIP-4 charges no opening fee (7bps taker / 4bps maker on close only). Sector volume is ~$45.3B/month. That implies only ~$4B/year of HL HIP-4 volume, not the $80B / 13.3% share previously carried.
Net effect on base 2030 fair value: $77.9 → $77.0 (−1.2%) — small in total, but material to the story: prediction markets are no longer treated as a growth pillar.
Equity, tokens and private companies with different structures — read the set, not a single ratio.
A selection of the registry in output/HYPE_sources.csv. Anything not directly observed is an assumption inside SCENARIOS / SEGMENTS.